North American Growers/Shippers See the Growth Potential Left By the EU Potato Production Gap

The NAPMN, cited by UPGC, predicts that the US potato production will rise by 9.5% in 2023. That would be a 2.09m tons increase over 2022 at 24.05m tons.

For the US harvest in 2023, NAPMN is predicting an average yield of 56.33 tons per hectare, up from 49.09 tons per hectare in 2022 but still significantly below the output that has been trending for the previous 20 years. The last few months have seen generally favorable growing conditions across the nation.

As shippers rushed out the remainder of the old crop due to strong demand, US packers sent 351,680 tons of fresh potatoes in July, 34,104 tons more than they shipped at the same time last year, a 10.7% increase.

The Northern European Potato Crop Has Been Battered by Extreme Weather

This season's extreme weather has severely damaged the potato harvest in Northern Europe. Planting was delayed because of the late, damp, and cold spring. It was replaced by an extremely hot and dry May and June. However, July arrived with extremely cold and rainy weather, with some locations receiving more than twice as much rain as usual.

Although August has started rainy, the next few days should bring warmer and dryer weather. Growers who want to lift early crops will enjoy that, and the light will encourage more growth.

“Trial digs in Belgium show that yields of the most important maincrop variety (Fontane) are only two-thirds of the five-year average, highlighting the pressure crops have been under this year,” the latest UPGC analysis reveals.

Aside from the strain on yields, recent data indicates that planting in the EU decreased by 0.4% from the previous year to 1.358m hectares, the lowest amount ever. More potatoes would be produced by an average crop than in 2022, but low yields indicate the smallest crop ever. Poland is one of the major producers of potatoes in Europe. It has planted the smallest area ever, and yield issues suggest that it will produce a crop that is less than 6.61m tons for the first time. There is evidence that growers in France and Germany are moving from starch and seed crops to potatoes for consumption (particularly for processing).

“The real question is whether North American growers/shippers will be able to take advantage of this shortage of potatoes in Europe: is there enough capacity in processing in NA to ship frozen? Is there availability of appropriate transport to ship Fresh potatoes? At what cost? Or will Europe look for supply closer to home? [...],” the UPGC analysts ask.

U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Potatoes Remain Above Pre-pandemic Levels

Potato retail dollar sales in the U.S. climbed by 16.8% between July 2022 and June 2023. The quarter ended with a substantial increase in retail dollar sales of 14.5% when compared to the same time the previous year, which occurred in April–June 2023. For the 52 weeks, dollar sales hit USD16.9bn, the highest level in five years. Even while volume sales decreased by 2.6% for the year and 3.3% for the quarter, they are still 2.5% higher than they were before the epidemic.

For fresh potatoes, the average sales price for the 52 weeks was USD2.22 per kilo, a 19.8% increase from the previous year. Fresh dollar sales increased for all types except white, fingerling, and purple potatoes. Yellow potatoes were the only member of the fresh category to grow in dollar (21.4%) and volume (7.0%) sales.

Russet potatoes, which make up 62% of all volume sales for the fresh category, saw dollar sales increase by 23.5% and volume decline by 3.3% for the year. Russet potatoes had the biggest year-over-year price increase in the fresh category (27.7%), though they still have an average sale price under USD2.20 per kilo (USD1.82).