Japan Faces Two-digit Fresh Potato Supply Reduction This Year

The latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service from Tokyo (FAS/Tokyo) estimates show an 18% reduction, to 1.8m metric tons, in Japan’s 2021 domestic fresh potato supply, due to unfavorable weather in Hokkaido for two years in a row.

“This reduction in domestic output will increase demand for potato imports [...]” according to the latest USDA-GAIN updates on Potato Production and Consumption in Japan.

In the April 2020-March 2021 marketing year, Japan’s fresh potato acreage totalized 71,900 hectares (ha), and the production was 2,2m metric tons (MT). According to FAS Tokyo bureau experts, these values represent a decrease of 3.4% in acreage and 8.1% in production volume compared to 2019-2020 MY.

“2020-2021 MY season in Hokkaido was characterized by unfavorable weather, including insufficient sunshine and low temperatures in the latter half of June. Unfavorable weather conditions also impacted Hokkaido’s 2021-2022 MY potato production as June and July brought unusually high temperatures and drought,” according to the report.

As a consequence, FAS/Tokyo estimates Japan’s 2021-2022 MY potato production to drop a further 18% to 1,8m MT.

Japan produces several different potato varieties. Some end uses (e.g., potato salad and potato croquettes) allow for the utilization of different varieties, while other end uses (e.g., table- stock, starch, and chipping) require specialized potato varieties.

The US as the Biggest Potato Exporter to Japan

Currently, the United States of America (US) is the only country with market access for fresh potatoes to Japan, though the use of imported US potatoes is limited to potato chips.

In 2020-2021 MY, the US exported 27,435 MT of potatoes, valued at approximately USD15.3m, a 4.3% drop compared to 2019-2020 MY.

Given the poor outlook for 2021-2022 MY domestic production and the expectation of a gradually rebounding demand, FAS/Tokyo forecasts US potato exports to increase by 82.2% to 50,000 MT in 2021-2022 MY.

All of Japan’s 47 prefectures produce potatoes, though nearly 80% of Japan’s potato production comes from Hokkaido. In the last two decades, the number of potato operations across Japan fell by nearly 75%. Given the overall trend in farm labor shortages across Japan, FAS/Japan forecasts Japan’s potato acreage and production will continue to decline.