A Seven Percent Smaller Canadian Potato Crop Growth Versus the 2023 U.S. Harvest

The Canadian crop estimate was updated recently, and Canada is expected to produce 7.08m tons, a 2.9% increase over 2022.

The Manitoba potato crop is expected to be roughly 8% bigger, at 1.57m tons, compared to 1.46m tons last year. The Canadian Prairie Provinces are expected to gain approximately 13%, while the Maritime Provinces will lose 4.3%.

According to North American Potato Market News (NAPMN) specialists, the US potato crop in 2023 will be 24.05m tons, which is more than 2.07m tons more than last year's extremely tiny crop. That would be a 9.5% increase.

North Dakota's crop is expected to be 1.40 million tons, a 9.2% increase over last year. According to NAPMN, Minnesota will be down 3.9% due to 890 less planted hectares.

The Idaho harvest is predicted to be more than 20% greater than last year, at 8.12m tons, a 1.34m ton increase. This year, Washington state is expected to produce almost 392,000 tons more.

US fresh-potato shipments for the 2023-2024 marketing year are forecast at 5.03m tons, 1,960 tons more than the August forecast, and exceeding the 2022-2023 marketing season shipments by 439,320 tons.

The U.S. potato imports from Canada are expected to reach 369,600 tons for the 2023-2024 marketing year, much lower than the 448,000 tons exported in 2022-2023.

“It is important to note, however, that raw potatoes exported from Canada but destined for processing in the U.S. did get included in the fresh export numbers. However, there was still an increase of at least 56,000 tons of potatoes exported to the US during the 2022-23 marketing year. With the size of the crop expected out of Idaho this season, we are not predicting nearly the same level of exports into the U.S. in 2023-2024. Instead, we are already seeing pressure from the strong movement of potatoes out of the fields in the Columbia Basin and Idaho. With almost the same number of planted hectares in Idaho alone as in the entire country here in Canada, it is no wonder that the state has a heavy impact on the russet market across North America,” the UPGC experts announced on October 10th.

PEI’s Potato Yields ‘A Bit Behind’ 2022

This summer, Prince Edward Island (PEI) saw a lot of rain, with some regions receiving up to 100 mm in the first two weeks of September. The aftermath of Hurricane Lee was undoubtedly less severe than anticipated, but the ground is still incredibly moist. Many growers are still harvesting and shipping their produce out of the field, hoping to begin storage harvesting maybe the following week, depending on the weather.

Although there are no proven occurrences, the majority of areas remain on high alert for blight. Because of the damp ground and the chilly nighttime temperatures, there are worries about possible problems during harvest. While the harvest is looking well overall, it is not as good as it was last year, when the season was nearly perfect.

“Yields appear to be tracking a bit behind last year and we estimate a 44.26 tons per hectare average yield for the province, still higher than the five-year average. This combined with an estimated harvested hectares figure of just over 33.198, would peg production for the island at an estimated 1.47m tons, down 1.1% from 1.48m tons in 2022. It is important to note that weather through harvest could impact the number of abandoned acres, we will continue to monitor and provide another update in October,” according to a September 2023 UPGC Potato News report.

Average to Slightly Below Average Potato Yields in New Brunswick

The province has also received a lot of rain during the growth season, but it has begun to get sunnier in the latter half of this week, and more sunlight and warmer temperatures are expected next week. Growers have struggled to get into the fields due to the extremely moist soils. It is expected that they will be able to begin working in the fields in earnest on the 22nd. Due to the excessive rain, the early crop was of poor quality, with hollow heart and rot difficulties.

“Expectations are of an average to slightly below average yield and a low set. With this in mind, we have estimated abandoned hectares at around 446, and an average yield of 42.87 tons, below last year but still above the six-year average. This would give an estimated 896,000 tons in production for the province, approximately 52,640 tons below last year’s good crop,” the UPGC representatives mentioned.

Quebec’s Farmers Are ‘Into Full Harvest Mode’

Growers are currently in full harvest mode, with an estimated 15% accomplished. With the significant rain throughout the summer, as recently as the date the study was released, losses of at least 10% are projected, with some expecting even higher losses depending on the area. Overall, the crop is good, but growers are still expecting up to 15% lower yields and are concerned about storability if weather conditions do not improve during harvest.

Gradeouts are expected to have malformed and hollow heart problems, though round varieties appear to be doing better than the russet crop. The processing sector acreage is seeing some of the same yield and quality concerns as the fresh sector, but the northern areas, notably in the seed sector, are reporting considerably better conditions.

“With upwards of 931 hectares expected to be lost for various reasons, and a yield expected to be off by up to 10-15% on average, we are estimating a much lower production for Quebec this year at just under 716,800 tons. Although lower by almost 112,000 tons when compared to last year and even 2021, this production number is still on track with the five-year average in the province,” the UPGC analysts wrote in their report.

The Potato Quality in Ontario is ‘Excellent’

The harvest season in Ontario has been excellent, and things are picking up. The quality is excellent thus far, but it's not exceptional, and the high levels of moisture brought on by the summer's heavy rains could cause some storage problems. The Alliston area, which has heavier soil, is still reporting a strong crop, although there have been some incidents of late blight. The Simcoe/Delhi area has experienced outstanding yields and quality from the early crop. The province's production is predicted to be up a little over 3% for this season at about 470,400 tons, even though producers will harvest 14,856 hectares, which is less than in 2022 but still corresponds to a greater forecast average yield of 31.81 tons per hectare.

Below Average Potato Yields in the Manitoba Province

Estimates indicate that slightly over 50% of the harvest is complete in the province of Manitoba. Although fresh sector yields are predicted to be ordinary to maybe below average depending on the field, quality is extremely good. With only 2.53 cm of rain falling in certain places during the summer, the dryland regions suffered their driest year ever.

Fields using irrigation have fared better, with reduced sets and a decent but not exceptional crop. The crop has done quite well in the processing industry; growers have reported excellent quality and a nice size profile. In comparison to the previous year, Manitoba's harvested hectares, average yield, and output forecasts are all higher this year. If everything goes as planned, we might see a record-breaking 1.57m tons of production in 2023.

Saskatchewan’s Potato Crop is ‘Above Average Quality’

Harvest is estimated to be just over 50% done, with nearly ideal digging conditions, could be finished in about 10 days. The province is reporting a good crop with above-average quality, however, dryland areas have had poorer results due to such a hot and dry summer.

“Some struggles were keeping up with water supply in the irrigated areas as well but it does not seem to have had an impact on the yields. We have targeted an average yield of 240 for the province and combined with 2,949 hectares harvested, we would estimate total production to be 95,200 tons, up just over 20% from last year,” according to the document.

Alberta Faces a Big Potato Crop With ‘Good Yields Overall’

According to reports from Alberta, harvest is about 65% complete and might be completed as early as the week of October 15–21. Overall, reports of a large crop and strong yields indicate that while the sandier ground was undoubtedly affected by the extremely dry and hot summer, the heavier ground fared very well. In southern Alberta, where most of the processing crop is grown, water supplies for irrigation did become scarce in August, but they were still enough to last until the beginning of harvest. Though the weather has recently dropped considerably, not much rain has fallen. Positive reports also indicate robust yields and outstanding quality for the seed crop.

“With planted acres up in the province over last year, we also expect harvested acres to be up as well, around 32,226 hectares this year. Combined with good yield predictions of 54.63 tons per hectare UPGC estimates overall production in Alberta to be just shy of 1.76m tons, a 17% increase over last year,” the UPGC analysts reveal.

In British Columbia, the Potato Liftings are Going ‘Very Well’

It has been the warmest and driest summer the British Columbia province has ever seen; from April to now, there has only been 5.07 cm of rain. Notwithstanding the ongoing dryness, the harvest is doing quite nicely.

“There have been a few small showers, enough to keep the dust down. But temperatures have remained warm. Storage is about 60% complete and should be done in the next 10 days or so. Better than average crop reported both in yields and overall production,” they summed up.