Total Canadian Potato Storage Holdings Down From 2022 Figures

Total Canadian Potato Storage Holdings are estimated to be higher than the three-year average as of June 1, 2023, but down 3.3% from 2022 figures for the same time. Many shippers in Canada are monitoring supplies as inventory levels decline and metering out the old crop to make sure they can fulfill commitments till the new crop. In May 2023, a record 731,553 tons of potatoes were transported out of storage, a rise of 13% over shipments in April and only 4.4% more than in May 2022.

“We saw fresh and processing disappearance slightly lower this month but seed disappearance almost doubled, not surprisingly as planting began in earnest in May. Quebec and Manitoba saw slight increases in Fresh shipments while all other provinces’ movement in this sector was down, with the opposite in Processing as all provinces showed increased shipments of potatoes in the sector for May except Quebec and Manitoba,” the UPGC experts wrote in their last report.

The majority of the seed movement in the east occurred in May, with 94% of the December seed holding having been moved as of the end of May, whilst the majority of the seed potatoes in the west had been shipped in April. All Canadian provinces have finished planting, or nearly finished, with some of the early Warba crop in BC already harvested and in shops.

In all parts of the nation, planting conditions were excellent, especially when contrasted to the chilly, rainy spring of the previous year. According to the majority of provinces, potatoes were planted “on schedule.” However, many regions have seen hot and dry weather since planting. While this hasn't yet had a significant influence on the crops, all growers are keeping a tight eye on the forecast as the plants mature.

The Fresh Potato Stocks in Canada Down 17.2%

As of the end of May, Canada's fresh potato stockpiles were at 181,364 tons, down 17.2% overall from the previous year but still significantly higher than the 3-year average. Since inventories are getting low and shippers are preparing to switch to the new crop over the next few months, the quantity of fresh potatoes shipped in May fell by just 17,120 tons (13%), to 106,684 tons. Going forward, the pace of shipping, as well as the weather through June for the new crop, will be crucial variables.

Shipments in May 2023 are up slightly more than 4% when compared to the same month last year. We calculate that about 82% of the Fresh crop has already been delivered based on the stocks listed in the first holding report, which was published in December. The market is solid across all of North America, with high demand for yellows and reds, and strong pricing for all hues despite the introduction of the crop from California, which has been arriving in smaller volumes and starting later than usual.

Stocks of Processing Sector Potatoes are up Just Slightly

With only 6,248 tons more in storage as of June 1 than in May 2022, Canada's potato storage levels for the processing sector are only marginally higher than they were in May of last year. Based on average monthly shipments from December through May, the movement continued to surpass last year by 5.2%, shipping a record 370,857 tons. There have been 2.208m tons sent in that time, which is 111,765 tons more than was shipped during the same period last year.

“Demand from processors, impacted by the continued increase in global demand for frozen fries as well as catching up from shortages last summer, is keeping the movement strong in this sector. Only Quebec and Manitoba shipped fewer processing potatoes in May compared to April, all other provinces saw greater movement for the month. Contract negotiations were settled in most areas except for Manitoba who were still in discussions in May,” the report reveals.

The Seed Inventory Down Only 304 Tons

The quantity of potato seed stock recorded as of June 1, 2023, is 33,021 tons, which is only 304 tons less than it was at this time last year but still more than the three-year average. However, the shipping pace is up 6,655 tons per month on average for December through May of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, with 254,011 tons being moved in May, on track with shipments for May 2022. This season did begin with about 40,641 tons more in storage (based on December published numbers).

“New Brunswick, PEI, and Manitoba saw significant increases in shipments in May compared to April, with all other provinces seeing decreases in movement for the month as stocks were depleted. The bulk of the seed storage left is in New Brunswick, which may be based on a couple of factors; the province has not completely done planting and there may be a slight lag in reporting by a couple of weeks,” based on the UPGC report.