First Estimates for the 2023 Canadian Potato Hectarage Show Growth

Statistics Canada released their first estimate of potato hectarage in Canada as a result of data obtained from their survey of potato growers in Canada. The 2023 potato hectarage is estimated at 160,628 ha.

This is 3,973 hectares greater than the previous year and a 2.5% growth over 2023. Hectarage increased by only 1,140 ha in 2022 compared to 2021, a relatively small rise compared to the significant growth in 2021 post-COVID.

“The majority of increases we have seen in the last two to three years have been predominantly in the major processing provinces, bringing supply back to meet demand increases in the industry that began pre-COVID. However, due to significant rises in input costs starting in early 2021, coupled with increased interest rates and land costs, as well as seed shortages, most areas in Canada saw hectarage remain fairly flat compared to last year,” according to UPGC analysts.

Alberta saw the greatest growth in acreage in 2023, with an extra 2,800 hectares planted, representing a 9.5% increase over last year. The majority of this increase is in the processing sector, in response to continuous rises in global demand for frozen fries, as well as the news earlier this year of the McCain Coaldale facility's planned expansion.

All other provinces showed increases in planted acreage for this crop year at varying levels, except for Quebec which posted a 295 ha decrease compared to 2022 (based on the revised acreage figure of February 2023). Most regions reported differences in acreage figures depending on the sector, with some like Quebec down in chip but up in frozen and flat on table and seed; and Manitoba slightly up in fresh but flat in processing.

“From planted hectarage, we would extrapolate to potato production based on historical averages. Although the five-year average for abandonment in Canada is at 2.9% due to high levels in 2018 and 2019, we feel that this year will be closer to 2022 levels of 1.5%. Based on current growing conditions we feel that the overall yield for Canada will be close to the estimate for the 2022 crop of 40.4 tons/hectare. Based on this yield and including the abandonment of approximately 1.5%, we would estimate the total production for Canada to be close to 6.48m tons in 2023, exceeding last year's crop by close to 152,407 tons.